河北省分季粮食产量预测研究

在综合分析河北省粮食产量影响因素的基础上,运用回归分析、时间序列分析和专家经验分析等预测和决策方法,建立了河北省粮食总产和夏粮的多因素预测模型,该模型的拟合优度高于其他模型。应用模型预测了2013年河北省粮食总产和分季粮食产量,结果表明,若不发生大面积的自然灾害,2013年河北省粮食总产将达到3311.7万t,比2012年增加65.1万t,增长2.0%。其中,夏粮产量约为1366.8万t,比2012年增加13.7万t,增长1.0%;秋粮产量约为1944.9万t,比2012年增加51.4万t,增长2.7%。

Forecast on Seasonal Grain Production of Hebei Province

To forecast seasonal grain production in Hebei province, comprehensive analysis of factors affecting grain production was made firstly, then we set up multiple factors forecasting models for total and summer grain production whose goodness of fit was higher than other models, with the forecasting and decision-making methods such as regression analysis, time series analysis, expert experience method and so on. Forecast results showed that total grain production would achieve 33. 117 million tons in 2013, 651 thousand tons more than in 2012, an increase of 2 percent, if there were not natural disasters in large areas; summer grain production would achieve 13. 668 million tons, 137 thousand tons more than that of 2012, an increase of 1 percent; autumn grain production would be 19.449 million tons, 514 thousand more than that of 2012, an increase of 2.7 percent.