甘肃省耕地数量变化特征及其对粮食安全的影响

利用51年的耕地统计数据和近年的土地利用详查变更数据,揭示了甘肃省土地利用结构和耕地面积变化的总体特征,1955～2005年,甘肃省耕地面积和人均耕地面积呈现出逐年下降趋势,而粮食产量和人均粮食产量却呈现出上升趋势,最小人均耕地面积和耕地面积压力指数虽逐渐减小,但耕地压力指数历年都大于1,说明此期粮食的供给小于需求,粮食处于不安全状态。运用回归分析方法、预测理论、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型,对耕地面积变化的主要驱动因子进行了分析,在定量分析耕地数量变化和人口增长及经济发展关系的基础上,对未来15年耕地、人口、粮食、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行了预测。结果显示:2006～2020年,耕地压力指数继续减小,且越来越接近1,这说明耕地面积-人口-粮食之间的供需矛盾减小,粮食安全形势有所缓解。

The characters of cropland change and its influence on grain security in Gansu Province

The 51 years'data of cropland and land use change in recent years were used to reveal the overall characteristics of structure changes and cropland area in Gansu province.From 1955 to 2005,the cropland and cropland per capita presented a decreasing tendency year by year,while grain production and the grain production per capita showed a growing tendency.Although the minimum cropland area per capita and cropland pressure index presented a downward trend,the pressure index of cropland were all bigger than 1 o...