| Short-and Long-Term Effects of the Construction Industry on the Economy Growth |
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| 作者姓名： | ZOU Gao-lu |
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| 摘 要： | The construction industry could be developed as a pillar industry of the national economy,since it has a strong pulling role in economic growth.However,little definite empirical evidence supports this argument.Using co-integration and Granger causality tests and error-correction model with taking Sichuan for an example,this article studies both short-term and long-term effects of the construction industry on the economy growth.Empirical tests show that in the long term the economy maintained equilibrium relations with the construction industry.A growth in the construction industry will lead to the economic growth;however the pulling role of the construction industry on the economy is limited.A growth in the construction industry will not predict economic growth in the short run.Thus,for Sichuan case the government is unable to stimulate the economy by focusing on development of the construction industry in the short run.Instead,in order to promote long-term development of the national economy it could implement stable and healthy development policies for the construction industry.
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| 关 键 词： | Granger causality co-integration error-correction model construction industry economic growth |
| 修稿时间： | 2005/5/12 0:00:00 |
Short-and Long-Term Effects of the Construction Industry on the Economy Growth |
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| ZOU Gao-lu.Short-and Long-Term Effects of the Construction Industry on the Economy Growth[J].Storage & Process,2005(5):117-122. |
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| Authors: | ZOU Gao-lu |
| |
| Abstract: | The construction industry could be developed as a pillar industry of the national economy,since it has a strong pulling role in economic growth.However,little definite empirical evidence supports this argument.Using co-integration and Granger causality tests and error-correction model with taking Sichuan for an example,this article studies both short-term and long-term effects of the construction industry on the economy growth.Empirical tests show that in the long term the economy maintained equilibrium relations with the construction industry.A growth in the construction industry will lead to the economic growth;however the pulling role of the construction industry on the economy is limited.A growth in the construction industry will not predict economic growth in the short run.Thus,for Sichuan case the government is unable to stimulate the economy by focusing on development of the construction industry in the short run.Instead,in order to promote long-term development of the national economy it could implement stable and healthy development policies for the construction industry. |
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| Keywords: | Granger causality co-integration error-correction model construction industry economic growth |
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