区域畜禽养殖环境承载力评价及预警研究

基于产业生态经济系统视角，从经济、社会、自然角度综合考虑，选取发展类和限制类指标构建区域畜禽养殖环境承载力评价指标体系，运用系统分析模型测算2010—2019年吉林省各区域畜禽养殖环境承载力，并用灰色预测模型GM（1,1）预测2020—2029年吉林省各地区畜禽养殖环境承载力情况。结果发现，在自然状态下，未来10年省域范围内整体畜禽养殖环境承载力不容乐观。9个行政区域中吉林、四平、通化、白城、松原5个地区将发展成畜禽养殖环境系统承载力薄弱地区，畜禽产业环境压力逐渐显化，建议缩减养殖数量和规模，尽快进行产业转移和生态修复，并考虑走生态产业化道路；延边、长春、白山3个地区将发展为畜禽环境承载力乐观区域，辽源地区则为畜禽养殖环境承载力较为乐观区域，在维持现有畜禽养殖模式的同时，加强生态环境保护，适度开展可持续性畜禽产业发展活动。区域畜禽养殖业发展必须在环境系统承载力约束下探索耦合、协同和可持续发展的道路。 关键词：畜禽养殖；灰色预测模型；系统分析模型；环境承载力

Evaluation and early warning of environmental carrying capacity of regional livestock and poultry breeding

Based on the perspective of industrial ecological economic system and from the perspective of economy, society and nature, the development and restriction indexes were selected to construct the evaluation index system of regional livestock and poultry breeding environmental carrying capacity. The system analysis model was used to measure the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in various regions of Jilin Province from 2010 to 2019, and the grey prediction model GM(1,1) was used to predict the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in various regions of Jilin Province from 2020 to 2029. The results showed that under natural conditions, the overall environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in the next 10 years is not optimistic. Among the nine administrative regions, Jilin, Siping, Tonghua, Baicheng and Songyuan would become weak areas of livestock and poultry breeding environmental system carrying capacity, and the environmental pressure of livestock and poultry industry gradually increased. It was suggested to reduce the number and scale of breeding, carry out industrial transfer and ecological restoration as soon as possible, and consider taking the road of ecological industrialization. Yanbian, Changchun, Baishan and other three regions will become optimistic areas of environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry and Liaoyuan area will be more optimistic areas of livestock and poultry breeding environmental carrying capacity. It suggested to maintain the existing livestock and poultry breeding mode, strengthen the ecological environment protection, and moderately carry out sustainable livestock and poultry industry development activities. The development of regional livestock and poultry breeding industry must explore the path of coupling, coordination and sustainable development under the constraints of environmental system carrying capacity.