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| 宿州市大涝发生年份的中心逼近式GM(1,1)预测模型研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 孙惠合,晁林海,娄伟平. 宿州市大涝发生年份的中心逼近式GM(1,1)预测模型研究[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2008, 36(23) |
| 作者姓名： | 孙惠合 晁林海 娄伟平 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 安徽省宿州市气象局,安徽宿州,234000 2. 安徽省宿州市农业委员会,安徽宿州,234000 3. 浙江省新昌县气象局,浙江新昌,312500 |
| 摘 要： | 以Z指数为旱涝指标,确定宿州市大涝年份,应用改变背景值的中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型,通过调整m值提高模型精度,建立了精度较高的宿州市大涝发生年份GM(1,1)预测模型,并对宿州市下一个大涝发生年进行了预测。 |
| 关 键 词： | Z指数 大涝 中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型 预测 |
Center Approach Grey GM(1,1)Prediction Model for Severe Flood Occurrence In Suzhou City |
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| SUN Hui-he et al. Center Approach Grey GM(1,1)Prediction Model for Severe Flood Occurrence In Suzhou City[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2008, 36(23) | |
| Authors: | SUN Hui-he et al |
| Abstract: | Z-index was used as the severe drought-flood index for determining the severe flood occurrence in Suzhou City.Center approach grey GM(1,1)model which changed the background value was applied.Through adjusting m value to enhance model precision,center approach grey GM(1,1)prediction model with higher accuracy for severe flood occurrence in Suzhou City was established.The future severe flood occurrence in Suzhou City was predicted. |
| Keywords: | Z-index Severe flood Center approach grey GM(1 1)model Prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |