中国水产品人工养殖对天然生产的挤出效应分析

借鉴政府财政支出挤入/挤出效应理论,利用1995-2013年统计数据,建立误差修正模型和协整模型,对中国水产品人工养殖对天然生产挤出效应进行了分析。结果表明,水产品人工养殖对天然生产存在挤出效应,且海水的挤出效应大于淡水。结合实际,进一步分析得出这种挤出效应的传导机制是水产品的价格,并分析了挤出效应产生的影响,最后提出了相关对策建议。

Analysis on the Crowd-in and Crowd-out Effect of Artificial Breeding for Aquatic Products

Using theory of the crowd-in and crowd-out effect of government expenditure for reference,the error correction mod-el and cointegration model were established with the statistical data from 1995 to 2013, to analyze the crowd-in and crowd-out effect of artificial breeding of aquatic products on natural production in China. The results showed that artificial breeding of aquatic product had a crowd-out effect on natural production, and the effect of seawater aquaculture was bigger than freshwater. Combined with practices, the further analysis showed the transmission mechanism was the aquatic products price, besides the impact of the crowd-out effect was also analyzed. Finally suggestions and the countermeasures were put forward.