新疆兵团农机总动力预测模型的研究

为了提高新疆兵团农机总动力预测模型的精度,获得更加可靠的预测结果,针对回归模型的多重共线性问题及灰色模型仅含有指数增长趋势的问题,基于2007-2014年农机动力的相关数据,建立了主成分回归和灰色回归两种预测模型。对两种模型的预测精度进行比较分析,结果表明:主成分回归模型和灰色回归模型预测值的平均相对误差分别为0.57%、0.46%,灰色回归预测模型的精度较高,可以较真实地反映新疆兵团农机总动力的变化趋势。应用该模型进行预测,得到了新疆兵团农机总动力未来5年的预测值。

Research on the Prediction Model of Agricultural Machinery Total Power in Xinjiang Corps

In order to improve the precision of forecast model of agricultural machinery total power in Xinjiang corps and obtain more reliable predictions , focus on the problems of regression model of multicollinearity and grey model containing only exponential growth trend ,based on the data of 2007 to 2014 related to agricultural power ,established principal com-ponent regression and gray regression model .The prediction accuracy of the two models were compared , and the results showed that the average relative error of predicted values of the principal component regression model and grey regression model were 0 .57% and 0 .46%.The gray regression prediction model is of high precision and can truly reflect the change of agriculture machinery total power of Xinjiang corps .The model is applied to forecast and obtained the forecast value of agricultural machinery total power of xinjiang corps in the next five years .