| 张掖市耕地变化与社会经济发展的相关分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭玲霞,张勃,张华.张掖市耕地变化与社会经济发展的相关分析[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(19):5009-5011. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭玲霞 张勃 张华 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃,兰州,730070 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目(40235053)，甘肃省中青年科技基金项目(031-A21-005530)，西北师范大学校青年基金(NWNU-QN-05-42) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据张掖市1949年以来的农村社会经济统计资料、土地概查、土地详查分析和研究,运用多元逐步回归分析方法,对近55年来的耕地变化态势及总人口、城市化水平、粮食单产水平、工农业总产值、人均GDP、财政收入等影响耕地资源变化的主要动因进行了探讨。应用SPSS进行逐步分析,建立多元回归模型,结果表明,与张掖市耕地资源变化最密切的因子为总人口、城市化水平以及人均GDP。
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| 关 键 词： | 张掖市 耕地 驱动因子 逐步回归分析 |
| 文章编号： | 0517-6611（2006）19-5009-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 06 27 2006 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-27 |
Analysis of the Correlation between the Cultivated Land Change and Social Development and Economic Growth in Zhangye City |
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| GUO Ling-xia et al.Analysis of the Correlation between the Cultivated Land Change and Social Development and Economic Growth in Zhangye City[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2006,34(19):5009-5011. |
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| Authors: | GUO Ling-xia |
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| Institution: | School of Geography and Environment Scierice, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070 |
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| Abstract: | According to socio-economic statistical data,the general surveys and analysis of land as well as cultivated land in the Zhangye city from 1949 to 2004 were conducted.The major driving forces that affected the trend of cultivated land change was pointed out.With the regression analysis,a multivariate regression model was set up and result showed that population,urbanization level and per-capita GDP were the most important driving forces affecting the trend of cultivated land change.The authors believed that a scientific basis for sustainable agricultural development of this region was provided. |
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| Keywords: | Cultivated land change Economic growth Population increasing Zhangye city |
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