基于高斯随机扰动的潜在蒸散敏感性分析

旨在定量分析不同气象要素对潜在蒸散量敏感性大小的时空分布，以期为提高蒸散量计算精度提供依据。以1961年1月1日—2012年12月31日的日观测资料为基础，通过添加高斯分布随机扰动，计算各要素的敏感系数。研究表明：安徽全区年尺度上，日照时数和平均风速的敏感性最高，敏感系数分为0.1258和0.1089；月尺度上，4—9月蒸散量的主要敏感因素为日照时数，10月至次年3月的主要敏感因素为平均风速和实际水汽压。敏感性空间分布不均，淮河以北地区平均风速为主要敏感因素；淮河以南地区则仍是日照时数为主要敏感因素。

Analysis of Potential Evapotranspiration Sensitivity Based on Gauss Random Disturbance

The paper aims to calculate sensitive coefficient of various meteorological elements on potential evapotranspiration, with the daily observations from January 1, 1961 to December 31, 2012, by adding Gauss distributed random disturbance. Research showed that: on the year scale in Anhui Area, the sunshine duration and the average wind speed were the highest sensitive factors, sensitive coefficients were 0.1258 and 0.1089. On the month scale, the main sensitive factor from April to September was the sunshine duration, the main sensitive factors from October to March were the average wind speed and the actual water vapor pressure. The sensitivity of spatial distribution was uneven. The sunshine duration was the main sensitive factor for the south area of Huaihe, the average wind speed was the main sensitive factor for the north area of Huaihe.