基于省域数据的我国耕地非农化与经济发展研究

土地利用与社会经济活动关系密切。耕地作为土地的精华,面积变化与经济发展之间呈现出显著的规律性。通过分析我国经济成熟区、经济成长区和经济欠发达区经济差异特征的基础上,以1999年～2002年耕地面积统计数据为基础,采用相对指标(耕地减少率、耕地非农化率)和绝对指标(耕地建设占用总量和人均占用量)考察耕地减少状况,然后将各经济区域与耕地减少状况进行空间相关分析,结果表明,耕地减少率与区域经济发展水平相关性不显著,而耕地非农化率与经济发展之间存在着良好的相关关系,经济成熟区的耕地非农化率最高;耕地建设占用总量和人均占用量也表现出经济成熟区>经济成长区>经济欠发达区的特点。耕地建设占用程度与经济发展水平呈正向变化趋势。建立土地优化配置机制、推进产业结构升级代换是实现耕地非农化库兹涅茨曲线转化的关键措施。

A Study on the Correlation Between Farmland Conversion and Economic Development Based on Statistic Data of 31 Provinces and Cities in China

Land use has close relationship with social and economic activities.As the core of land,cultivated land has an obvious changing law related to economic development.Based on statistics data from 1999~2002,the differences among economic developed areas,economic developing areas and economic under-developing areas in China were analyzed.In order to find out the law of farmland changes,the relative indexes(rate of farmland reduction,rate of farmland conversion) and the absolute indexes(total area of farmland occupied by building and area of farmland occupied by building per capita) were used.It was found that the rate of farmland reduction didn't express significant correlation with the level of economic development,while the rate of farmland conversion and economic development showed a positive correlation.The area of farmland occupied by building both in total and in per capita followed the order that developed areas>in economic developing areas >in economic under-developing areas.Some advices such as constituting mechanism of optimum land collocation and updating and upgrading industry structure are suggested in order to carry out Kuznets Curve inverting.