基于人工神经网络的经济预测模型

以我国31个省的1999~2011年的面板数据为基础，实证中国不同地区人力资本投资对旅游业发展的影响。结果表明，高等教育对旅游产业发展的作用显著，而中等教育的作用不显著，且存在区域差异；在高等教育发达地区，高等教育对旅游业发展的效应不显著，而在高等教育落后地区则较为显著。中部地区高等教育的旅游产业反馈效应一般。因此，高等教育落后地区要重视旅游高等教育的规模和质量，教育发达地区要重视旅游教育的结构和层次。

Economic Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network

Human capital investment has become an important factor influencing the development of regional tourism in China. Taking tourism college student number as an alternative indicator of human capital, based on the panel data of China''s 31 provinces from 1999 to 2011, the paper empirically researched the effect of human capital investment on the tourism development in different regions in China. The results show that higher education''s role in the development of the tourism industry is significant, and the role of secondary education is not significant; effect of higher education to tourism development is not marked in provinces with developed higher education; the effect of higher education to tourism development is the most significant in provinces with poor higher education; and the effect of higher education to tourism development is ordinary in central provinces. The provinces with backward higher education should pay attention to the size and quality of tourism education, and the provinces with developed higher education should pay attention to the structure and level of tourism education.