基于VAR模型的农村居民消费结构演进与经济增长关系分析

通过构造一个由消费结构、第二产业结构、第三产业结构和GDP四个变量组成的VAR模型,对中国农村居民的消费结构与经济增长相互作用的关系及其动态特征进行了实证研究.通过设定的模型、格兰杰因果检验、预测方差分解和协整检验,发现经济增长会影响农村居民消费结构演变,而经济增长对第二产业结构的影响存在双向因果关系.

Relation between Consumption Structure Evoluation of Chinese Rural Residents and Economy Growth——An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

An empirical analysis was made on the relationship and dynamic features between the consumption structure and economy growth of Chinese rural residents based on VAR model of 4 parameters.By model setting,Granger test,variance decomposition and co-integration test,it was found that economy growth had one-way effect on consumption structure of Chinese rural residents,and there was a bidirectional causality relationship between economy growth and industry effects.