近百年美国大豆生产时空格局变化分析

本文基于1924—2019年美国大豆生产分布县域数据,采用变异系数、空间分析等方法,分析了美国大豆产量、种植面积和单产的时空分布特征和重心迁移轨迹,为中国了解美国大豆产业发展现状,应对大豆国际市场变化,制定大豆生产、贸易进出口政策等提供参考。结果表明:①近百年美国大豆生产经历了引种扎根、迅速发展、波动性发展、稳定成熟四个发展阶段。1924—2019年,美国大豆的产量、种植面积和单产总体呈现波动上升趋势,年均增长率分别为7.17%、4.17%、1.55%。②中西部地区一直是美国大豆的主产区,研究时段内大平原地区大豆生产地位上升,南部地区地位下降。伊利诺伊州、印第安纳州和艾奥瓦州的大豆产量多年位于全美前列,大豆高产的州多位于大豆主产区。各州之间大豆产量、面积差距逐渐缩小,单产差距不大。③美国大豆产量在空间上呈现显著的集聚特征,且集聚性逐渐增强。高高集聚区和低高集聚区分布较广,此两类集聚区均呈现扩张趋势。④1930—2010年,美国大豆生产重心总体呈倒“几”字形向西北方向移动,2010年后又向东南方向移动,总体移动距离为63.54千米。基于美国的经验,未来中国大豆生产应注重安排轮作模式,制定大豆品种种植规划;改革创新大豆农业保险制度;加快大豆科技创新;推进大豆规模化经营、标准化种植;培养壮大中国大豆行业协会,争夺中国大豆行业话语权。

The Analysis of Spatial-temporal Pattern Changes of Soybean Production in the United States in Recent 100 Years

Based on the soybean production data at county level in the United States from 1924 to 2019,this article analyzes the spatial-temporal changes and gravity center migration path in soybean production,planting area and yield in the United States by methods of coefficient of variation and spatial analysis.It provides reference for China to understand the development status of American soybean industry,deal with the changes of soybean international market,and formulate soybean production,trade,import and export policies.The results showed:①In the past 100 years,soybean production in the United States has experienced four development stages:introduction and rooting,rapid development,fluctuating development and stable maturity.From 1924 to 2019,soybean production,planting area and yield in the United States showed a fluctuating upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of 7.17%,4.17%and 1.55%respectively.②The Midwest region has been the main soybean producing area in the United States.During the study period,soybean producing status in the great plain area increased and the southern region decreased.Illinois,Indiana and Iowa have been the top soybean producing in the United States for many years,and the High-yield Soybean states are mostly in the main soybean producing areas.The gap between soybean production and area of each prefecture is gradually narrowed,and the gap between soybean yield per unit area is not large.③The soybean production in the United States showed significant spatial agglomeration characteristics,and the agglomeration gradually increased.High-high and low-high concentration areas are widely distributed,and both of them show an expanding trend.④From 1930 to 2010,the soybean production center of gravity in the United States generally moved in an inverted“several”shape to the northwest,and then moved to the southeast after 2010,with an overall offset distance of 63.54 km.Based on the experience of the United States,China’s soybean production in the future should pay attention to arranging the rotation mode,formulating the planting plan of soybean varieties,reforming and innovating the soybean agricultural insurance system,accelerating the scientific and technological innovation of soybean,promoting the large-scale operation and standardized planting of soybean,cultivating and strengthening China’s Soybean Industry Association and competing for the voice of China’s soybean industry.