粮食总产量变化影响因素的灰色关联分析

为增加浙江省粮食总产量，依据浙江省1995—2012年有关粮食总产量的统计数据，选择粮食种植面积、化肥、农药、有效灌溉面积、农机总动力和种植业劳动力6个指标作为影响粮食总产量的因素，并利用灰色关联法对影响浙江省粮食总产量的因素进行关联分析。结果表明，这6个影响因素与粮食总产量关联度的顺序依次为种植业劳动力（0.862 9）、粮食种植面积（0.858 8）、化肥（0.796）、农药（0.680 7）、有效灌溉面积（0.597 3）和农业机械总动力（0.553），因而扩大种植面积和增加农业机械投入替代种植业劳动力等是当前实现浙江省粮食总产量增加的重要措施。 

Grey Correlation Analysis of Total Grain Output Influencing Factors in Zhejiang Province

According to the statistics of total grain output in Zhejiang province from 1995 to 2012，six indexes，such as grain planting area，chemical fertilizer rate，application amount of pesticides，effective irrigation area，agricultural machinery gross power and agricultural labors were chosen as influencing factors for total grain output.Correlation between six indexes and total grain output was analyzed by using gray relation methed.Results indicated that relevancy order of which had an impact on the total grain output was agricultural labors 0.862 9，grain planting area 0.858 8，chemical fertilizer rate 0.796，application amount of pesticides 0.680 7，effective irrigation area 0.597 3 and agricultural machinery gross power 0.553.Consequently，enlarge planting area and increase agricultural machinery for agricultural labors are the most important measures to realize sustainable development of grain output in Zhejiang province.