Assessing potential production of maize using simulation models for land evaluation in Brazil

Abstract. The paper highlights the advantages of modelling to simulate dynamic processes and to couple environmental data more closely with effects on crops. The CERES-Maize crop model and the DSSAT software package were selected for the work and the region of the Triângulo Mineiro in the state of Minas Gerais was selected as the study area. The results showed that there are differences in the potential production of the Latosols of the Triângulo Mineiro and this should be taken into account when extrapolating or transferring technology for other regions within the same cerrado ecosystem of central-west Brazil. It is essential to improve the number of points with weather data collection since, as demonstrated for Frutal, the climate of the Triângulo can determine differences in potential agricultural production as well as risk for production. The study showed that the use of crop models can improve land suitability evaluations, for land use planning, or establishing strategies for rural funding.