疾病费用预测的建模分析

果肉自溶是影响龙眼采后果实贮运、货架寿命和贮藏品质的重要因素。本文综述了龙眼果肉自溶过程的组织结构变化、生理生化变化及微生物侵染与自溶的关系、果肉自溶相关的分子生物学等的研究进展,探讨龙眼果肉自溶的机理和常用的保鲜技术,并提出未来研究的方向,以期对龙眼果实采后贮运保鲜提供参考。

Modeling analysis on the prediction of the cost of diseases

On the basis of the per capita treatment cost per month of five common diseases, i.e. diabetes, intestinal polyp, hyperthyroidism, eutocia and cerebral infarction, in a 3-A-grade hospital in Chongqing from January, 2012 to December, 2014, we used BP neural network, generalized regression neural network (GRNN), grey system GM (1, 1) and non-linear regression analysis to predict the change of per capita treatment costs per month of these five diseases from January 2015 to August 2015. And the accuracy of these four models was judged by comparing the prediction results with real data. The results show that the minimum coefficients of determination (R²) of the four models are 0.278, 0.565, 0.048 and 0.097, respectively, while their maximum coefficients of determination(R²) are 0.826, 0.901, 0.600 and 0.747, respectively. The minimum prediction errors of the four models are 9.845%, 3.507%, 5.897% and 3.642%, respectively, while their maximum prediction errors are 15.450%, 13.940%, 30.518% and 17.204%, respectively. Compared with the other three models, the GRNN model can predict the cost of diseases more accurately.