河北省冬小麦气候适宜度及其时空变化特征分析

为定量评价气象要素对作物生长的影响,采用逐日气象要素和统计方法,建立了河北省冬小麦各生育期气候适宜度评价模型,并分析了1981-2010年逐年冬小麦各生育期气温、降水、日照和气候适宜度的时空变化特征。结果表明：冬小麦生育期内日照和气温适宜度较高,降水适宜度最低且变异系数最大。日照适宜度以冬小麦分蘖期最小,变异系数最大;降水适宜度以拔节-抽穗期最小,变异系数最大;气温适宜度以越冬-返青期最小,分蘖期变异系数最大。全麦区气温适宜度高值区分布在西北部,低值区分布在东南部;降水适宜度高值区分布在东北部,低值区分布在东南部;日照适宜度高值区分布在北部,低值区分布在南部。多年气候适宜度变化趋势为：全生育期日照适宜度显著下降,气候适宜度缓慢下降,气温和降水适宜度无明显变化趋势。气候适宜度下降主要由各生育期日照、越冬期和灌浆期气温适宜度下降引起。

Climatic Suitability of Winter Wheat and Its Spatial-temporal Changes in Hebei Province

For evaluating quantitative effect of meteorological factors to crop yield,the climatic suitability model of winter wheat during growing season in Hebei province was established,based on the daily climatic data and statistics methods,and the temporal-spatial changing characteristics of the climatic suitability was analyzed.The results showed that the precipitation suitability degree was obviously lower than that of sunshine and temperature,but the coefficient of variation of precipitation suitability was the largest.The sunshine suitability during the tillering period was the lowest and the coefficient of variation was the largest,the precipitation suitability during the period from jointing to heading was the lowest and the coefficient of the variation was the largest,the temperature suitability during the period from over-wintering to double ridge was the lowest,the coefficient of the variation of tillering stage was the largest.The area with high-value of temperature suitability degree was in Northwest,while the low-value area was in Southeast.The area with high-value of precipitation suitability degree was in Northeast,while the low-value area was in Southeast.The area with high-value of sunshine suitability degree was in North,while the low-value area was in South.The climatic suitability showed that,from 1981 to 2010,the sunshine suitability degree of winter wheat growing period decreased obviously,climate suitability degree decreased slowly,and temperature and precipitation suitability no changed.The main reason to climate suitability decreasing was temperature suitability decreasing during over-wintering period and grain filling period,and the sunshine suitability decreasing during each development stage.