产量阶段的划分及应用

针对较长产量序列时序可比性差产量预报方程回归误差率较高、气象产量序列不符合正态分布等问题，提出了产量阶段概念。认为产量序列是由一个个相对稳定变化着的产量阶段组成，两个产量阶段之间存在跳跃现象，宜分阶段处理。并提出用量优分割法划分产量阶段，结合周期分析结果确定产量阶段段娄和霜冻最后，用划分产量阶段的方法，建立了河南省冬小麦产量预报方程；并好河南省夏玉米丰、平、歉产量年型。

The Division and Application of Yield Stages

Aiming at some problems of meteorological yields sequences, such as the worse time series comparability for long yield sequences, the higher regression error for yield prediction equations and meteorological yield series being not consistent with nomal distribution, the concept of yield stages is developed. The result of study shows that yield sequences consist of a series of yield stages whose developments are relatively stable. However, there are jump phenomena between any two yield stages, which should be processed individually. The methods that divide yield stages by using the best K division way and decide the stage numbers based on the results of periodic analysis are conducted. Finally, the yield prediction equations for winter wheat are established and the different yield harvests year types (bumper, common or scanty harvest year) of summer maize in Henan Province are divided in terms of the way of yield stages dividing.