近20年湖北省水稻总产波动分析

作物的产量受各种自然和社会因子的影响,表现出一定的波动特征.采用剩余法对湖北省1990～2009年间水稻(Oryza sativa L.)总产波动特征进行分析,旨在为实现湖北省水稻生产的平稳增长找到可靠的技术途径.结果表明,湖北省水稻总产最近20年间大体变化可以分为3个阶段,1990～1997年为水稻总产稳定增加阶段,1997～2003年为水稻总产持续快速下滑阶段,2003～2009年为水稻总产稳步恢复阶段.20年间湖北省水稻总产波动总体上属于古典型波动,波动周期短、频率快、波幅较大,但最近有逐步进入较长周期的趋势.自然灾害特别是涝渍灾害是湖北省水稻总产频繁波动且波动幅度较大的主要因素,而政策是引导波动趋势的重要原因.加强水稻灾害研究和应对性设施建设是减少水稻产量波动的首要措施.

Analysis on Rice Production Fluctuation in the Last 20 Years in Hubei Province

Crop yield is influenced by the natural and social factors,showing some fluctuation characteristics.Based on the method of wavelet,the structure characteristics of rice yield fluctuation in Hubei province from 1990 to 2009 were analyzed so as to find out a reliable technical way to increase rice production steadily.The results showed that the change of rice yield in the last 20 years could be divided into three periods,as the rice yield increased during 1990～1997,decreased during 1997～2003,and then increased again.The fluctuation in rice yield belonged to typical fluctuation.It fluctuated in short period and big range.But it had a trend of fluctuating into a long cycle.Natural disasters,especially water logging disasters was the main reason causing rice yield fluctuating in short period and big range;while policy was an importance factor conducting the rice yield fluctuation.Strengthening the research of rice disasters and corresponding construction was primary measures to reduce the volatility of rice yield.