近40a河南省农业气象灾害对粮食生产的影响研究

全球气候变化背景下,农业气象灾害呈明显上升趋势,造成粮食大幅减产和价格波动,严重威胁全球粮食安全。利用1971-2010年河南省农业生产统计资料,分析了河南省农业气象灾害的特点和变化趋势,并探讨农业气象灾害对粮食生产的影响。结果表明:农业气象灾害对粮食生产的影响显著,旱涝灾害是影响河南省粮食生产的主要灾种;1971-2010年间河南省粮食平均灾损为331.3万吨,平均灾损比例为9.6%。因此,加强灾害监测,建立和完善农业防灾减灾体系,提高应对农业气象灾害的能力对于保证河南粮食生产具有重要意义。

Influence of agricultural meteorological disasters on grain production in Henan province

There is a clear ascendant trend of agriculture meteorological disasters under global climate change,which cause grain production reduction,price fluctuations and threatens food security dramatically.This research analyzed the characteristics of agricultural meteorological disasters and change trend,and explored the influence of meteorological disasters on grain production,based on agricultural production statistics in Henan province from 1971 to 2010.The results show that meteorological disasters had an obvious impact on food production,and drought and flood were the main meteorological disasters for grain production in Henan province.Annual loss of grain production due to drought was 3.313 million tons on the average and average intensity was high up to 9.6% during the period of 1971-2010.Therefore,it was extremely important to strengthen agricultural meteorological monitoring,establish and improve disaster prevention and mitigation system,improve the ability to respond to agricultural meteorological disasters to ensure the grain production in Henan province.