马尾松毛虫灾情指数的方差分析周期外推预报

为了提高马尾松毛虫Dendrolimus punctatus Walker灾情预报结果的准确性,为提高防治效果提供科学依据,本文采用方差分析周期外推预报法,以安徽省潜山县的马尾松毛虫各代幼虫累计发生量和当代发生面积计算求得的灾情指数为依据,进行方差分析周期外推预报,并对预报结果进行验证。预报结果的历史符合率,1989-2016年全年灾情指数预报结果历史符合率为89.29%;预报2017年的结果与实况一致。1989-2016年的越冬代历史符合率为89.29%,2017年预报值与实际完全一致。1997-2016年的一代预报结果历史符合率为100%。1989-2016年的二代预报结果的历史符合率为85.19%。2017年由于越冬代飞防使用灭幼脲,使当年一、二代虫口大幅度降低,预报值高于实况。方差分析周期外推预报法对马尾松毛虫的灾情指数预报是一种较理想的预报方法。

Analysis of variance periodic extrapolation prediction of the damageindex of Dendrolimus punctatus larvae

In order to improve the accuracy of disaster forecast of Dendrolimus punctatus, and provide scientific basis for improving the control efficacy, the periodic extrapolation prediction method of variance analysis was performed on the basis of the damage index calculated by the cumulative amount of larvae and the area of occurrence in each generation of D. punctatus in Qianshan county, Anhui province, and the prediction results were verified. The historical conformity rate of the annual disaster index forecast results was 89.29% for 1989-2016, and the forecasts for 2017 were in line with the actual data. The historical conformity rates of the overwintering and 2nd generations were 89.29% and 85.19% for 1989-2016, respectively, and the forecasts were in line with the actual data for 2017, while the historical conformity rate of the 1st generation was 100% in 1997-2016. In 2017, due to the application of chlorbenzuron by aerial spraying, the 1st and 2nd generations were greatly reduced and the forecast value was higher than the actual value. The method of variance analysis and periodic extrapolation is an ideal method for predicting the occurrence of D. punctatus.