春玉米生育中期阶段主要农事活动气象适宜度评价模型

农事活动天气预报是农用天气预报的核心内容,是指导农业安全生产的重要理论依据之一。本研究重点对春玉米生育中期阶段中耕和药(肥)喷施农事活动的气象适宜度评价模型进行了深入探讨。结果表明：土壤水分、降雨量、温度是影响春玉米中耕农事活动的主要因素；风力、降雨量、温度和土壤水分是影响药(肥)喷施农事活动的主要因素；并确定各因子的适宜指标,利用分段线性函数建立各因子的气象适宜度函数,利用层次分析法确定各因子权重系数,进而获得了中耕和药(肥)喷施的综合气象适宜度评价模型,其气象适宜度评价结果与实际情况基本相符；根据短期的气象因子预报值,可以开展春玉米中耕和药(肥)喷施的气象适宜度等级评价预报指导服务。

Evaluation Model of Meteorological Suitability of main Farming activities during Medium period of growth for maize

Abstract: Weather forecast of Farming activities was Core part in Agricultural Weather Forecast, and was one of the important theoretical bases to Guiding Agricultural Safety Production. the research was about Evaluation Model of Meteorological Suitability on Plough and Chemical agents（Fertilizer） Spraying during Medium period of growth of maize. The results showed that: Plough was affected by these factors, such as Soil moisture, Precipitation and Temperature. Chemical agents（Fertilizer） Spraying was affected by these factors, such as wind, Precipitation, Temperature and Soil moisture. With segmented linear functions, Meteorological Suitability Function of every factor was established under the premise of obtaining suitable index of their factors. Weight coefficient of every factor was obtained by Analytic Hierarchy Process, furthermore the models was built about Meteorological Suitability on Plough and Chemical agents（Fertilizer） Spraying, and the Results of evaluation were basically in line with the actual situation. According to the forecast value of short-term meteorological factors, Guidance Services of Weather Forecast could be carried out for these Agricultural activities, such as Plough, Chemical agents Spraying and Fertilizer Spraying, during Medium period of growth of maize.