Mechanisms regulating inter‐annual variability in zooplankton advection over the Lofoten shelf,implications for cod larvae survival

Variability in the availability of suitable prey (mainly nauplii stages of Calanus spp.) in the early life stages of cod is likely a significant contributor to the fluctuations in the year‐class strength in the Arcto Norwegian cod stock. We have investigated the origin of the Lofoten shelf population of Calanus using a particle tracking model approach based on velocity fields simulated from 2002 to 2012. By performing backwards simulations of trajectories from particles released on the Lofoten shelf in early spring, we assessed the relative contribution of potential Calanus sources, such as the Lofoten Basin, the local overwintering on the continental shelf and the adjacent fjords. This analysis revealed significant interannual differences in advection patterns mainly driven by changes in wind conditions and variable strength of the Norwegian Coastal Current. Most of the particles advected into our study area originated on the shelf, and contrary to expectations, only a few originated from the Lofoten Basin where Calanus abundances tend to be high. These results suggest that contribution from the Lofoten Basin to the early spring shelf Calanus population may be overestimated and that contribution from more local sources, especially from adjacent fjords, may play a more important role than what has been previously anticipated. Our results highlight the necessity to improve quantification of shelf‐fjord exchange processes, as these may contribute more to the regulation of spring zooplankton stocks on the northern Norwegian shelf, and, as a result, may affect the survival of cod larvae in this area.