基于形态学空间格局分析与CA-Markov模型的武义县绿色基础设施时空格局变化及情景模拟

在全球城市化快速发展的背景下,绿色基础设施(GI)因其良好的生态环境效益而在城市规划与建设中受到重视。以浙江省金华市武义县为研究区,采用ArcGIS、GuidosToolBox、Conefor 2.6等软件对武义县1990、2005、2018年的3期土地利用类型图进行形态学空间格局分析,并设置城市发展优先、生态保护优先、自然发展3种情景,运用CA-Markov模型分别预测3种情景下的未来绿色基础设施空间格局。结果显示:1990—2018年武义县的绿色基础设施面积占武义县面积的比例在不断降低,重要核心区、孤岛面积不断减少,桥接区、孔隙、支线面积不断增大,景观破碎化问题加重。在2030年的情景模拟中,自然发展和城市发展优先情景下的武义县GI面积分别减少171.79 km² 和225.73 km²,核心区面积分别减少84.81 km²和126.76 km²。生态保护优先情景下,武义县GI面积增加25.52 km²,核心区面积增加69.60 km²。结果表明,如果一味追求粗犷式的经济发展,忽视生态保护,武义县的景观破碎化问题将进一步加剧。基于此,武义县应以生态保护优先为前提,适度开发中部、南部地区的旅游资源,以实现经济增长与环境相协调的可持续发展战略。

Analysis of spatial-temporal pattern and scenario simulation of green infrastructure in Wuyi County based on morphological spatial pattern analysis and CA-Markov model

In the context of rapid global urbanization, green infrastructure (GI) has attracted attention in urban planning and construction due to its good ecological and environmental benefits. In the present paper, Wuyi County, Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province was selected as the research area, and ArcGIS, GuidosToolBox, Conefor 2.6 and other softwares were applied to analyze the morphological spatial pattern of the land use type of Wuyi County in 1990, 2005 and 2018. The three scenarios of urban development priority, ecological protection priority and natural development were set up, and the CA-Markov model was used to predict the future green infrastructure spatial pattern under the three scenarios. The results showed that the ratio of the area of green infrastructure in Wuyi County to the total area of Wuyi County in 1990—2018 decreased. The area of important core areas and island-like plaques was decreasing, while the area of bridges, pores and branch lines was increasing, and the problem of landscape fragmentation was aggravated. In the scenario simulation in 2030, the GI area of Wuyi County under natural development and urban development priority scenarios would decrease by 171.79 km² and 225.73 km², respectively, and the core area would decrease by 84.81 km² and 126.76 km², respectively. Under the ecological protection priority scenario, the GI area in Wuyi County would increase by 25.52 km², and the core area would increase by 69.60 km². The results showed that if people pursue blindly of rough economic development and neglect ecological protection, the landscape fragmentation in Wuyi County would be further aggravated. Based on this, priority should be given to ecological protection, and tourism development should be moderately regulated in the central and southern regions, to achieve sustainable development in accordance with economic growth and environment.