| 柑桔溃疡病发生测报模型的建立 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨秀娟,陈福如,阮宏椿,谢世勇,郑红铭,卢同.柑桔溃疡病发生测报模型的建立[J].江西农业大学学报,2004,26(6):881-884. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨秀娟 陈福如 阮宏椿 谢世勇 郑红铭 卢同 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建省农科院植物保护研究所,福建,福州,350013 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省自然科学基金资助项目(B0110031) |
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| 摘 要： | 2001-2003年从田问系统调查了柑桔溃疡病发生、流行规律。采用DPS数据处理系统方法，建立了柑桔溃疡病发生流行测报模型，Yn=-33．832 1．193X1n 2．259X2n 0．008X3n,Rr=0．959。研究结果表明．病害发生流行与柑桔的物候期及雨量、雨日、温度的气候因素关系密切。其中，病害发生的严重度与雨量、雨日呈显著性相关，相关系数分别为R1=0．916^*和R2=0．868^*．该测报模型能较准确地预测中短期柑桔溃疡病发生、流行程度。
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| 关 键 词： | 柑桔溃疡病 气候因素 测报模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-2286(2004)06-0881-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年8月27日 |
Establishment of the Forecast Mathematical Model of Citrus Bacterial Canker Disease |
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| YANG Xiu-juan,CHEN Fu-ru,RUAN Hong-chun XIE Shi-yong,ZHENG Hong-ming,LU Tong.Establishment of the Forecast Mathematical Model of Citrus Bacterial Canker Disease[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitis Jiangxiensis,2004,26(6):881-884. |
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| Authors: | YANG Xiu-juan CHEN Fu-ru RUAN Hong-chun XIE Shi-yong ZHENG Hong-ming LU Tong |
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| Institution: | YANG Xiu-juan,CHEN Fu-ru~*,RUAN Hong-chun XIE Shi-yong,ZHENG Hong-ming,LU Tong |
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| Abstract: | Field occurrence and epidemic regularity of Citrus Bacterial Canker Disease(CBCD) was investigated from 2001 to 2003. Based on the data of investigation, the forecast mathematical model of CBCD is, Y _n = -33.832+ 1.193 X _(1n) + 2.259 X _(2n) + 0.008 X_(3n) ( R_Y =0.959~*), which established by using the method of DPS data processing system . Disease occurrence is closely related to precipitation and rain days ,and their related coefficient were R_1= 0.916~* and R_2=0.868~* respectively. The findings showed that field occurrence and epidemic regularity of CBCD in middle-short period could be forecasted by using the forecast mathematical model of CBCD. |
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| Keywords: | citrus bacterial canker disease meteorological factors forecast mathematical model |
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