| MM5模式对阿勒泰地区2005—2008年汛期降水预报检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 张林梅,庄晓翠,李春芳.MM5模式对阿勒泰地区2005—2008年汛期降水预报检验[J].甘肃农业科技,2010(11):13-15. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张林梅 庄晓翠 李春芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆维吾尔自治区阿勒泰地区气象局,新疆,阿勒泰,836500 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用MM5中尺度数值预报模式检验了阿勒泰地区2005—2008年汛期(5-9月)的降水预报效果。结果表明,MM5模式对阿勒泰地区区域性降水的定性预报有较好的指导意义;就该地区定量降水的预报而言,对小雨的预报准确率较高,其次是中雨和微雨,对大雨、暴雨基本无预报能力。
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| 关 键 词： | MM5数值预报 降水预报 检验 |
Verification for MM5 Pattern Precipitation Forecasts over Altay Region During the Flood Season from 2005 to 2008 |
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| ZHANG Lin-mei,ZHUANG Xiao-cui,LI Chun-fang.Verification for MM5 Pattern Precipitation Forecasts over Altay Region During the Flood Season from 2005 to 2008[J].Gansu Agricultural Science and Technology,2010(11):13-15. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Lin-mei ZHUANG Xiao-cui LI Chun-fang |
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| Institution: | (Aletai Meteorological Observatory of Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region,Aletai Xinjiang 836500,China) |
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| Abstract: | The MM5 mesoscale numerical forecasting by used to examine precipitation forecast effect of the pattern in Altay region during the flood season from 2005 to 2008（May to Octomber）.The result indicated that the MM5 pattern had high valuces for the precipitation qualitative forecast for the local area,specially the regional precipitation qualitative forecast.And the performance of MM5 pattern for local quota precipitation forecast quota precipitation forecast was not very ideal,which was better for light rain forecast than for the moderate rain and the drizzle,having non-forecast ability for heavy rain and rainstorm. |
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| Keywords: | MM5 nmerical forecasting Precipitation forecasts Verification |
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