中美贸易摩擦对我国小麦出口贸易隐含碳影响的预测分析

为预测分析中美贸易摩擦对我国小麦贸易出口及其隐含碳排放的影响,本文基于共享社会发展路径情景(SSP2),利用动态全球贸易-环境模型,估算了我国各应对方案下2020—2030年小麦的贸易隐含碳变动。研究发现,美国对我国加征小麦进口关税的情况下,河北、安徽、山东与河南等省份GDP在2030年分别下降0.338?、1.427?、0.103?与2.074?,其中出口下降将导致对外的小麦出口隐含碳排放量分别减少65.36、69.53、109.86 t与152.97 t;采用小麦生产技术等措施能有效减缓贸易摩擦对我国的负面影响。研究认为我国未来农产品贸易战略应以提高农业生产效率、减少生产要素投入为主要方向,当前亟待加强现代农业科技研发及其推广应用力度以应对国际贸易环境变化及其对农业贸易与隐含碳排放的影响。

Quantitative predictions of impacts of trade friction between China and the US on wheat trade and its embodied carbon emissions

In order to predict and analyze the impacts of trade friction between China and the United States on China′s wheat trade exports and their embodied carbon emissions.Using the dynamic global trade environment model,this paper,based on the scenario of shared social development path(SSP2),presented the embodied carbon emission changes of wheat in 2020—2030.It is found that the GDP of Hebei,Anhui,Shandong,Henan and other major grain provinces decreased by 0.338?,1.427?,0.103?and 2.074?respectively in 2030,among which the decrease of export led to the reduction of 65.36、69.53、109.86 and 152.97 tons of embodied carbon emissions of wheat ex port.The improvement of wheat production technology can effectively alleviate the negative impacts of trade friction on China.The conclu sion is that China should further develop the modern agricultural science and technology to cope with the changes of international trade en vironment and its embodied carbon emission issues.