Geospatial delineation of South Korea for adjusted barley cultivation under changing climate

Determining effective measures to alleviate the impact of climate change on crops under various regional environments is one of the most urgent issues facing agriculture. In this study, geographic regions of South Korea for future-adjusted barley cultivation were outlined and the impact of climate change on barley production in the next 100 years was evaluated under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios: the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. To achieve our intended study goals, a geospatial crop simulation modeling (GCSM) scheme was formulated using CERES-barley model of Decision Support System for Agricultural Technology (DSSAT) crop model package version 4.6 to simulate grid-based geospatial crop yields. Two experiments were carried out at an open field to obtain model coefficients for the nation and at temperature gradient field chambers to evaluate the performance of the CERES-barley model under elevated temperature conditions. Suitable cultivation regions for three different types of barley (naked, hooded, and malting) under changing climate were projected to expand to the northern regions under both RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5. However, they were projected to expand more rapidly under RCP 8.5 than those under RCP 4.5. Projected yields of four barley varieties were increased with a slow phase as year progressed under RCP 4.5 scenario. However, they were rapidly increased under RCP 8.5 scenario. It appears that geospatial variation in barley yield under changing climate can be effectively outlined. Therefore, GCSM system might be useful for determining impacts of climate change on geospatial variations of crops, potentially providing means to impede food insecurity.