近100年及未来气候变化对中国农业产量的影响研究

总结了国内外学者对气候变化对我国农业影响的研究结果,鉴于我国人口增长对粮食需求量的增加,重点研究了气候变化对我国粮食产量的影响。结果表明,在不同区域以及应用不同的研究方法所得到的结果并不相同,这与研究方法、研究假设的场景及研究区域均有一定的关系。同时,农业发展还受到政策因素和科学技术的作用,在未来的模拟研究中如何去掉这两者对农业产量变化的影响,以及考虑到农业生物对气候变化的适应性,模拟研究中模型与参数的使用性与敏感性的问题,将会得到更加准确的结果。

The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Product in China in the Recent One Hundred Years and Future

The research results about effects of climate change on Chinese agriculture at home and abroad were summarized especially focused on grain yield because of increasing population's demand on grain.The results showed that the research results are different in various regions with different methods and backgrounds.At the same time,the impact of policy and science and technology on agricultural development were not exhausted.So in the future study,we should pay more attention on how to removal the impact of policy and science and technology on agriculture yield variation.Considering the adaptability of the agriculture biology to climate change,simulating the suitability and sensitization of model and its parameters could get more accurate results.