近50年宿州积雪日数的气候变化特征及其影响因子分析

[目的]研究近50年宿州积雪日数的气候变化特征及其影响因子。[方法]根据1961～2010年宿州年积雪日数及相关资料,运用线性趋势法、累积距平及完全相关系数法等数理统计方法,对宿州积雪日数的气候变化特征及其影响因子进行分析。[结果]50年来宿州积雪期呈现出缩短趋势。除≥20 cm厚度的积雪日数外,各级厚度积雪的年积雪日数呈现出不同程度的减少趋势;年积雪日数呈波动下降趋势,下降幅度为0.84 d/10a;年积雪日数20世纪60年代～70年代前期呈现由少到多的态势,70年代中后期～80年代中期步入少积雪的时期,80年代后期～90年代初逐渐增加,90年代中期～2003年又进入少雪期,2004年至今呈现出多雪、少雪交替的振荡。影响宿州年积雪日数变化的主要气候因子为平均气温,其次为平均地表温度。[结论]该研究为全球气候变暖背景下宿州的气候变化分析提供理论依据。

Analysis on the Climatic Change Characteristics of the Snow Cover Days and Its Influence Factor in Suzhou during Recent 50 Years

[Objective] The research aimed to study the climatic variation characteristics of snow cover days and its influence factor in Suzhou during recent 50 years.[Method] According to annual snow cover days and related data in Suzhou during 1961-2010,by using the linear trend method,accumulative anomaly and complete correlation coefficient method,etc.,the climatic variation characteristics of snow cover days and its influence factor in Suzhou were analyzed.[Result] In recent 50 years,the snow cover period in Suzhou presented shortened trend.Except days of snow cover(≥20 cm),the annual snow cover days at each thickness all showed varying degrees of decrease trend.The annual snow cover days had a fluctuation trend of decline,and the decline amplitude was 0.84 d/10 a.From the 1960s to prior period of the 1970s,the annual snow cover days presented increase trend.From the middle and later periods of the 1970s to the middle period of the 1980s,the snow cover was less and gradually increased from the later period of the 1980s to early the 1990s.From the middle period of the 1990s to 2003,it entered into less snow period again.From 2004 to now,it presented oscillation of snowy and less-snow alternating.The main climatic factor which affected annual snow cover days in Suzhou was average temperature.The second one was average surface temperature.[Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for analyzing climate variation in Suzhou under the background of global climate warming.