中国红茶出口“一带一路”沿线国家贸易及其影响因素实证分析

中国是世界上最早种植茶树的国家,也是红茶出口贸易最早的国家。本文阐述了中国红茶出口“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易现状,利用重新构建的贸易引力模型实证分析了影响贸易的主要因素。研究结果表明,中国红茶出口均价提高、中国与红茶进口国距离增加、人民币升值均对中国红茶出口“一带一路”存在显著的负向影响,红茶进口国家的人口数量、中国与红茶进口国的人均GDP均对中国红茶出口“一带一路”有明显的正向影响。而共同边界作为虚拟变量对中国红茶出口“一带一路”沿线国家或地区的贸易的正向影响不明显,但签署自由贸易协议作为虚拟变量对中国红茶出口“一带一路”国家或地区的贸易具有明显的正向影响。

An Empirical Analysis of the Trade and Influencing Factors of China's Black Tea Export to Countries along the Belt and Road

China is the origin of tea and the first black tea export country in the world. Tea, particularly black tea was one of the most important trade commodities on the Chinese ancient Silk Road. Here, the trade profile of China's black tea export to countries along the belt was first described and the main factors affecting the black tea export was analyzed. The expanded trade gravity model was applied to analyze the influencing factors of China's black tea export to countries along the belt. Empirical analysis shows that the average export price of Chinese black tea, the growth of the distance between China and the importing countries of black tea, and the exchange rate of RMB were significantly but negatively correlated with Chinese black tea export. The population growth of the importing countries and the GDP growth of China and the importing countries had a significant and positive impact on China's black tea export.