金塔绿洲近20年来农业生态安全动态评价与对策研究

根据世界经济合作和开发组织(OECD)与联合国环境规划署(UN-EP)共同提出的环境指标P-S-R(压力-状态-响应)概念模型,从金塔绿洲农业生态环境压力、生态环境状态和生态环境响应3方面构建了一个4层次的绿洲农业生态安全评价指标体系。在此基础上,利用多层次多目标决策和模糊优选理论,建立金塔绿洲农业生态安全评价的模糊优选模型。最后,对其1988—2007年农业生态安全进行动态评价。结果表明:20年来,金塔绿洲农业生态安全决策优属度小,生态安全总体水平低,生态环境不断恶化,生态安全形势严峻,正变得不利于人类的生存和发展,为此,提出保护绿洲生态环境,促进绿洲农业可持续发展的建议和对策。

Dynamic evaluation of agricultural eco-environmental security in Jinta Oasis during 1988-2007 and countermeasures of its eco-environment protection

The article aims to introduce the application of the P-S-R model and Multi-objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization model to evaluate the eco-environmental security of Jinta Oasis agriculture. Based on ecological security theory and P-S-R indicator system model, a 4-level indicator system for Jinta Oasis agriculture was established, which includes the pressure of eco-environmental, the state of eco-environmental and the response of eco-environmental. On this basis, the fuzzy optimization model for evaluation of Jinta Oasis agriculture eco-environmental security was established upon the multi-objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization theory, then, its agriculture eco-environmental security from 1988-2007 was evaluated, the results showed that the general level of eco-environmental security is poor, eco-environmental deteriorates continuously, the serious situation of eco-environmental security is becoming more unfavorable for the existence and development of human being.