黑龙江省哈尔滨市不同土地利用类型的碳排放效应分析

本研究以黑龙江省哈尔滨市为研究区，以2000—2010年土地利用、能源消耗等数据为主要依据对哈尔滨市各类用地进行碳排放效应分析，并在此基础上构建Logistic模型，预测2011—2020年净碳排放的变化趋势。研究结果表明:（1）从2000—2010年，哈尔滨市的净碳排放呈明显增加趋势，从1023.39万t增长到3264.64万t，增长幅度高达219%。（2）建设用地是主要碳源，占总碳源的99%以上。耕地和林地是主要碳汇，两者之和占总碳汇的99%以上。（3）地均碳排放强度表现为增长趋势，但单位GDP碳排放强度呈下降趋势。（4）在未来10 a，哈尔滨市净碳排放预计将呈现加速增长的趋势，2020年预计将达到5191.83万t。依据相关分析结果，从碳增汇和碳减排角度提出了土地利用的相关措施建议。

Effects of Different Land Use Patterns on Carbon Emission in Harbin City of Heilongjiang Province

This research selected the land use data, energy consumption data and other data of Harbin City from 2000 to 2010, and ued direct and indirect estimation method to analyze the effects of different types of land use on the carbon emissions in Harbin City, and got the carbon emissions data from 2000 to 2010. At the same time, based on this basic data, the Logistic model was constructed to predict the net carbon emissions of Harbin City from 2011 to 2020. The results are as following: (1) from 2000 to 2010, the net carbon emissions of Harbin City increased rapidly, from 10 234 thousand tons to 32 646 thousand tons and the growth rate is as much as 219%; (2) construction land is the main carbon emission source, accounting for about 99% of the overall carbon emission, cultivated land and woodland are the major carbon sink, accounting for about 99% of the overall carbon sink; (3) although the intensity of per unit carbon emission is increasing, the intensity of per GDP carbon emission is declining; (4) the net carbon emissions of Harbin City in the future ten years are expected to speedily grow, and will reach to 51 918 thousand tons in 2020. Based on relevant research results, some polices and suggestions of land use are put forward from the perspective of reducing carbon emission and increasing carbon sinks.