基于耦合模型的赣江水源保护区城市发展与水资源环境关系研究

识别和评价流域水源保护区城市发展与水资源环境耦合状态，可为促进区域生态环境建设提供参考。本研究以赣江上游水源保护区为例，通过构建耦合度模型对2001—2011年赣江上游流域城市发展与水资源环境耦合状态进行评价，并提出了相应优化路径。结果表明:（1）研究期内赣江水源保护区城市经济发展指数与水资源环境指数呈同步上升趋势，基本处于协调状态；（2）城市经济发展与水资源环境系统呈现出交互耦合状态，具有波动向前发展趋势，整体上经历了拮抗阶段和磨合阶段2个阶段；（3）研究期内耦合度变化明显，由低度协调共生阶段向协调发展阶段转变，具有明显后发优势。在此基础上，为实现城市发展与水资源环境耦合由低水平协调共生阶段向高水平耦合阶段演化，提出了基于稳定性理念的保障路径以及可持续性发展的激励路径，以期为实现流域水源保护区社会经济的可持续发展提供借鉴。

Study on the Relationship Between the Urban Development and the Environment of Water Resources in Ganjiang River Based on Coupling Model

The identification and evaluation of coupling states between urban development and water resources environment is the key to development of the regional ecological environment in water protection areas. In this paper, the water resources protection area of Ganjiang River was taken as an example. The method of coupling degree model was employed to evaluate and identify the states between the urban development and water resources environment from 2001 to 2011, and also the corresponding strategy was put forward based on what were mentioned above. The results indicate that:(1) it is synchronized rise between urban development and water resources conservation in Ganjiang River in recent 10 years, which is at the state of coordination;(2) the urban development and water resources environment system are presenting the interactive coupling state and with volatility development trend, and also from the overall experience antagonistic state to running stage; (3) the coupling degree significantly changes from the low coordination to coordinated development in the study period, which has obvious advantage of backwardness. Furthermore, the incentive and sustainable measures were put forward to promote the regional development, which is beneficial to achieving the low level to the high level coordination symbiotic evolution stages or coupled stage. According to the results mentioned above, the references for realizing the sustainable development in Ganjiang River can be also provided.