牧民定居政策对移民农户农业生产影响研究——基于新疆布尔津县农户调查

借助国内外相关研究成果和方法，基于2001—2012年新疆布尔津县主要农作物类型、产量、牧民定居数量等统计数据和376名移民农户的调查数据，借助面板模型实证检验牧民定居政策对移民农户农业生产的影响。结果表明，牧民定居政策可显著提高移民地区农户农业生产水平和产量。而户主从事农业生产时长、是否以农业为主要收入、户主接受过政府的农业技能培训和参加农业合作社、人均耕地面积以及农资价值等变量对农业生产有显著正向影响，但户主性别对农户农业生产负向冲击具有显著作用。而家庭抚养比和户主是否为村民代表等两个变量则对移民农户农业生产没有影响。结果说明在生态脆弱地区，合理的牧民定居政策有助于提高农户应对脆弱生态环境的能力和农业生产水平。而政府应加强政策引导，促使定居牧民通过农业生产实现安稳致富。

Herdsmen Settlement Policy Impacting on the Agricultural Production of the Migrant Farmers Based on the Peasant Household Survey of the Buerjin County in Xinjiang

Based on domestic and foreign research results and methods, the 2001—2012 statistical data and the survey data of 376 immigrant farmers in Buerqin County including the main crops types, production, pastoralists and other settler statistics, the impaction of the immigrant farmers herdsmen settlement policy on the agricultural production was tested by the panel empirical model. The results showed that the herdsmen settlement policy could significantly improve the level of agricultural production and yield. The variables such as the household head’s planting experience, whether agriculture being the main source of income, household head’s receiving the training in agricultural skills and participation in government agricultural cooperatives, per capita arable land, agricultural value and other variables have a significant positive impaction on the agricultural productions, but the gender of household head has the negative impact on agricultural production. The two variables including the household dependency ratio and acting as the villagers and representatives of immigrant households have no effect on the agricultural production. The results showed that rational herdsman settlement policy would help to improve farmer’s ability to respond to the fragile ecological environment and the level of agricultural production in the ecologically fragile areas. The Government should strengthen policy guidances to promote agricultural production achieved by settled pastoralists secure prosperity.