| 基于灰色理论的畜禽粪便环境污染风险预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王晓燕,汪清平,蔡新广,王连荣.基于灰色理论的畜禽粪便环境污染风险预测分析[J].家畜生态,2007(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王晓燕 汪清平 蔡新广 王连荣 |
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| 作者单位： | 首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院 北京100037(王晓燕，汪清平)，北京市密云县水土保持工作站 北京101500(蔡新广，王连荣) |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市科技项目“密云水库流域水土流失综合防治体系及示范推广研究”，北京市教委科技项目(KM200510028012)，北京市优秀人才计划20061D0501600225 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文运用灰色建模理论中的灰色数列预测方法,利用北京密云县10个乡镇的畜禽粪便实际负荷量和最大负荷量的确定,对未来年份的畜禽粪便负荷预警值进行预测。结果表明:该流域各乡镇未来十年所受畜禽粪便的污染威胁均呈现逐年加剧趋势,其中石城和番字牌预警值上升最快;冯家峪、大城子和新城子次之,高岭、太师屯和不老屯呈现缓慢上升态势。
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| 关 键 词： | 水源保护区 畜禽粪便负荷量 灰色数列预测 污染风险 |
Risk prediction of Livestock Manure Load Based on Grey theory |
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| WANG Xiao-yan,WANG Qing-ping,CAI Xin-guang,WANG Lian-ru.Risk prediction of Livestock Manure Load Based on Grey theory[J].Ecology of Domestic Animal,2007(6). |
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| Authors: | WANG Xiao-yan WANG Qing-ping CAI Xin-guang WANG Lian-ru |
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| Institution: | WANG Xiao-yan1,WANG Qing-ping1,CAI Xin-guang2,WANG Lian-ru2 |
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| Abstract: | Based on grey sequence prediction,the maximum load and practical load of livestock manure of 10 townships in Miyun County are used to predict the environmental risk in each county in the future years.The result of current study indicates that the pollution caused by the livestock's excrements which threatens water quality in the watershed has been serious at different degrees,in which the most serious counties are Shicheng and Fanzipai,and then Fengjiayu,Dachengzi and Xinchengzi.That of Gaolin,Taishitun and Bulaotun is increasing slowly. |
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| Keywords: | water source protection area load of livestock manure grey sequence prediction pollution risk |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
