农业生产资料价格对橘农收入的影响

采用1989~2006年的时序数据,通过建立向量自回归模型考量我国农资价格上涨与橘农收入之间的动态影响关系,并在对VAR模型进行残差检验和稳定性检验的基础上,运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差方法进行经济计量分析。研究结果表明,橘农每亩纯收入对农资价格上涨有负向响应并趋向稳定;农资价格上涨对橘农每亩纯收入增长有正向响应并趋向稳定。为有效防止我国农资价格大幅度上涨对橘农增收产生负面影响,政府应健全农资调控机制,取消农资生产和流通环节的补贴政策,对橘农实行直接补贴;建立中央和地方两级农资储备制度,平抑农资市场价格季节性波动;完善农资连锁经营体系,降低农资流通成本。

Effects of Price of Agricultural Production Means on Income of Orange Farmers

Based on the time sequential data from 1989 to 2006 and by using the impulse response function and forecast variance, this article establishes vector autoregressive model to analyze the dynamic relation between the price rise of agricultural means of production and the income of orange farmers. The results indicate that citrus farmers' net income shows negative response to the rising price of agricultural means of production, which tends to be stable;the price rise of agricultural means of production shows positive response to the increase of citrus farmers' net income, which also tends to be stable. To prevent the negative impact of sharply increasing price of agricultural means of production on citrus farmers' income, government should improve the controlling mechanism of agricultural means of production, cancel subsidy policies for the production and circulation of agricultural means of production, supply subsidies for orange farmers directly, establish agricultural reserve system at central and local levels, stabilize seasonal fluctuations of price in agricultural means of production, perfect chain management system of agricultural means of production and reduce the circulation cost of agricultural means of production.