基于MaxEnt模型的柑橘木虱在西南地区潜在分布模拟

本研究应用生态位软件MaxEnt和地理信息系统软件ArcGIS预测柑橘木虱在西南地区的潜在地理分布范围,筛选影响柑橘木虱分布的关键变量。结果表明柑橘木虱在西南地区高适生区主要位于西藏东南部、四川中东部、重庆大部、贵州大部和云南中北部,总面积为52.03万km 2,占西南地区总面积的23.89%。影响柑橘木虱分布的关键变量为最冷月最低温度、最冷季度平均温度、最湿季度降水量、最暖季度降水量、最暖季度平均温度和最暖月最高温度。本研究不仅模拟了柑橘木虱在西南地区的潜在地理分布,更为该虫的分布与环境变量之间关系的研究提供了理论参考。

Analysis of the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama in Southwest China using the MaxEnt model

In this study, the ecological niche modeling software MaxEnt (the maximum entropy model) was combined with ArcGIS (geographic information system) to predict the potential geographic distribution of Diaphorina citri in China. Key environmental factors and the appropriate ranges of their values were also investigated. The results showed that the highly suitable areas of D. citri in Southwest China were mainly located in the Southeast Tibet, the middle-east of Sichuan, most of Chongqing, most of Guizhou and the north-central part of Yunnan. The total area of the highly suitable area was 52.03×104 km2, accounting for 23.89% of the total area of the five provinces. The key variables affecting the distribution of D. citri were the minimum temperature of coldest month, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, mean temperature of warmest quarter, maximum temperature of warmest month. The results of this study not only established the suitable distribution areas of D. citri in Southwest China, but also would provide theoretical references for the research of the relationships between the presence of D. citri and environmental variables.