系统动力学在区域生态经济系统设计中的应用

新疆的农业生产具有区域独立性,为此,新疆农业的发展前景取决于两个方面:一是提高农业生产系统的产出水平,二是进行区域农业生态经济系统的设计和建设。系统动力学方法以及擅长处理非线性、高阶次、多重反馈的社会、经济、生态问题而被人们称为“策略实验室”,同时,它也为我们研究复杂的、具有时滞、不可直观特性的农业生态经济系统打开了希望之窗。

System Dynamics in Designing of Regional Agricultural System

Agricultural economy of Xinjiang has the charateristic of regional indepandence, therefore, its future depands on raising the output level of the agricultural system, designing and constructing the regional system. System dynamics is called "the decision tab", just because it is good at dealing with the problems which have the unlinear, high-level and multi-feedback loop behavior charateristics. The primary use for a dynamics model is for understanding and designing system, not for forecasting the future. System Dynamicos brings the hope for dealing with the agricultuial System which is complex, time-delay and unvisal.