| 吉林省西部重点农业开发区水田发展灰色预测与对策 |
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| 引用本文： | 宫辉力,李培.吉林省西部重点农业开发区水田发展灰色预测与对策[J].干旱区资源与环境,1992,6(4):39-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宫辉力 李培 |
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| 作者单位： | 长春地质学院 长春市·130026
(宫辉力)，吉林省白城地区水稻开发办公室 白城市·137000
(李培，程广有)，吉林省白城地区水稻开发办公室 白城市·137000(许清涛) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文通过该区水田发展中的投资、水田开发面积、水稻单产与总产、化肥用量等主要因分的灰色量化动态关联分析和GM(1,N)协调分析,论证了今后应注重调控的因子——提高亩产与化肥用量。通过GM(1,1)残差模型、非等维新息增长模型、GM(2,1)模型等预测了1992—1995年该区水田开发面积、水稻总产、化肥用量等,为政府决策与管理提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 吉林省 水田开发 灰色预测 |
GREY FORECASTING AND COUNTERMEA-SURES FOR PADDY FIELD DEVELOP- MENT OF KEY AGRICULTURAL REGIONS IN JILIN PROVINCE |
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| Gong Huili,Li Pei,Cheng Guangyou,Xu Qingtao Changchun University of Earth Sciences Baicheng Office of Paddy Development,Jilin Province.GREY FORECASTING AND COUNTERMEA-SURES FOR PADDY FIELD DEVELOP- MENT OF KEY AGRICULTURAL REGIONS IN JILIN PROVINCE[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,1992,6(4):39-46. |
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| Authors: | Gong Huili Li Pei Cheng Guangyou Xu Qingtao Changchun University of Earth Sciences Baicheng Office of Paddy Development Jilin Province |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,we collect successive data from 1987 to 1991 about paddy
field development in the western area of Jilin Province. The data are oper-
ated by a series of mathematical methods and models, such as grey quantit-
ative cognate analysis, GM (1, N) coordination model, GM (1, 1) resi-
dual difference model, GM (2, 1) model etc. The results reveal the key
factors for paddy development-fertilizer applied and per unit area output,
as well as total output and fertilizer amount for future paddy field. |
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| Keywords: | Jilin Province Paddy Field Development Grey Forecasting |
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