山西省粮食供需平衡分析

粮食是关系国计民生的重要商品和战略物资,粮安天下。对山西省30多年来的粮食总量平衡、品种结构平衡以及未来粮食供需面临的问题进行了分析。结果显示,改革开放以来,山西省粮食综合生产能力稳步提高,总产量依次迈上800万,900万,1 000万t三大台阶。然而,山西省粮食生产条件脆弱,供需矛盾仍比较突出:总量不足,多数年份自给率小于90%;结构性短缺严重,产粗吃细,口粮对外依存度达35%;未来粮食需求呈刚性增长,而粮食生产受耕地、水资源、粮食比较效益低等因素制约。因此,山西省需要提高粮食综合生产能力,调整优化粮食生产结构与消费结构,提高粮食自给能力。

Analysis of the Grain Supply and Demands Balance in Shanxi

Grain is one of the important goods and strategic supplies and it brings the nation food security.In this paper,results of the study about issue of the grain gross balance,breed structure balance and the grain supply and demands in Shanxi Province for 30 years have been obtained.The conclusion showed：although comprehensive grain production capacity is improving steadily,and grain output reaches successively three main steps 8 billion kg and 9 billion kg and 10 billion kg since the Reform and Opening in China,but food production condition is still fragile,and the contradiction between supply and demands are prominent in Shanxi.The main contradiction have three：the total amount of food is insufficient,and self-sufficiency rate is less than 90％ in most years; the constructional shortage is serious for quite some time,rice or wheat consumed while coarse grains produced,and external dependency of grain ration is up to 35％; food demands of the future shall be increased straight forwardly,while food production is restricted by many factors like arable land,water resourse and low comparative profit,etc.Therefore,it needs to improve comprehensive grain production capacity,to adjust and optimize the structure of grain production and consumption and improve grain self-sufficiency in Shanxi province.