中原经济区农业现代化的状态评价与定位推进

在梳理农业现代化相关研究的基础上,构建农业现代化综合评价体系,基于熵权灰色关联模型与空间分析方法对中原经济区农业现代化水平的时空变化规律进行分析。结果表明,时序特征方面,农业现代化综合水平除1997年出现小幅下降外不断提高,并且2002年之后增长幅度较大。其中农业经济发展水平、农业生产条件与生产效率水平呈现较稳定的增长;农村社会发展水平与整体变化类似,但2008年出现下降,且2009之后增长幅度有所下降;农业生态环境水平波动变化较大,呈现不稳定状态。从空间分异情况看,郑州、焦作、襄阳三市的农业现代化水平与其他地区差别较大,其余地区相邻之间的差距较小,农业现代化水平的等级层次相对不明显。从整个分布格局看,第三、第四、第五级别区组成的区域占据了绝对主导并形成大范围连绵分布区,第一、第二级别区分布范围小且在郑州及其北侧小范围集中,整个区域的分布格局极其不平衡且局部差异大。基于评价结果进行了原因解读,并从时空两个维度提出了定位推进建议。

State evaluation, positioning and propulsion of agricultural modernization in the Central Plains Economic Region

On the basis of reviewing literature on agricultural modernization, a comprehensive index evaluation system for agricultural modernization was established. By using such a system, the spatial-temporal dynamics and features of agricultural modernization in the Central Plains Economic Region (CPER) were analyzed based on the entropy-based grey relational model and the spatial analysis. From the temporal perspective, the comprehensive level of agricultural modernization increased gradually from 1995 to 2011, with a rapid growth since 2002, except for a slight decline in 1997. The agricultural economic development level and the agricultural production infrastructure modernization level grew stably. The rural social development level and the overall level changed similarly, with a decreasing trend since 2008. The agricultural ecological environment level fluctuated largely and showed an unstable state. From the spatial perspective, the difference of agricultural modernization level between Zhengzhou-Jiaozuo-Xiangyang and other regions was large. A small difference was observed for other regions. The hierarchy level of agricultural modernization was not obvious. From the entire distribution pattern perspective, the regions of the last three types were highly dominated and covered a wide range of areas. The regions of the first and second levels had a small number and mostly concentrated in the north of Zhengzhou. The distribution pattern of the whole region is extremely unbalanced, and the local variability was very large. Based on the results of the data analysis carried out in this study, the suggestion for the CPER positioning and propulsion was made from the spatial-temporal perspective.