冰雹与对流性强降水天气的物理量和雷达参数对比分析

利用2002～2006年济南雷达资料和探空资料对冰雹和强降水天气的物理量和雷达参数特征进行了对比分析。结果表明,SI愈小愈有利于降雹天气生成;K〉35℃时产生强降水天气的概率明显增加,K〈20℃时产生强降水天气的概率明显降低;CAPE值大于1 500 J/kg时,产生冰雹天气的概率明显减小,而产生强降水天气的概率明显增加;风切变小于5 m/s时产生冰雹单体的概率较小,风切变大于20 m/s时产生冰雹天气的概率较大。冰雹单体雷达预报指标为：VIL值达到35 kg/m2（5月）、43 kg/m2（6、7月）,单体高度大于9km,最大反射率因子大于60 dBz,强中心高度达到3.3 km（5月）、4.3 km（6月）、5.5 km（7月）;强降水单体的VIL值一般在25 kg/m2以下。

Comparative Analysis on Physical Quantity and Radar Parameters of Hail and Convective Strong Precipitation Weather

The physical quantity and radar parameters characteristics of hail and strong precipitation weather in Jinan was contrastively analyzed with radar data and sounding data in 2002-2006.The results showed that the smaller the SI was,the more beneficial to formation of Hail it was.When K>35 ℃,the production probability of strong precipitation weather was increased obviously,and when K<20 ℃ it was decreased obviously.When CAPE＞1 500 J/kg,the production probability of hail weather was decreased obviously,while that of strong precipitation weather increased obviously.When wind shear was small than 5 m/s,the production probability of hail cell was small,and when wind shear was over 20 m/s,the production probability of hail weather was bigger.The prediction index of hail cell was that VIL reached 35 kg/m~2(May) and 43 kg/m~2(July and June),and the height of hail cell was over 9 km,the biggest reflectivity factor was over 60 dBz,the height of strong centre reached 3.3 km(May),4.3 km(June) and 5.5 km(July).The VIL of strong precipitation precipitation cell was lower than 25 kg/m~2.