区域粮食安全预警指标体系的研究

针对国家和分省层次的粮食安全分别建立预警指标体系。运用独立开发出的“粮食供需平衡监测预警系统”对近年来国家和分省的粮食安全分别进行预警分析。结果表明，该文设计的区域粮食安全预警指标体系可以较客观地反映我国粮食供需状况，可以作为粮食供需平衡监测预警系统的模型支撑。遥感估产结果可以用于全国整体的粮食安全预警，但在分省层次上需要和统计数据作进一步的结合，才可以提供有效的预警信息。

Index systems for regional food security early warning

Two systems of indices for different levels of food security early warning are respectively designed. By means of the Spatial Decision Supporting System of Grain Supply and Demand Balance developed by authors,the situations of food security in whole country and different provinces are calculated and analyzed in recent years. The results showed that the two systems of indices can objectively and respectively reflect China's food supply and demand, can act as part of models of the Spatial Decision Supporting System of Grain Supply and Demand Balance. At the same time, the results of crop monitoring by remote sensing can become datum sources for the whole country's food security early warning, but at the level of province, it should be effectively integrated with statistical data.