Modeling spatiotemporal distribution of Dipterocarpus turbinatus Gaertn. F in Bangladesh under climate change scenarios |
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Authors: | Kamrul Islam Md Farhadur Rahman Kazi Nazrul Islam Tapan Kumar Nath Mohammed Jashimuddin |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Systems Innovation, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japanksujonifescu@gmail.com kamrul-islam@g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jphttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3443-9030;3. Division of Forest and Biomaterials Sciences, Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5403-4375;4. Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, University of Chittagong, Chittagong, Bangladeshhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0222-5900;5. School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Semenyih, Malaysiahttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6436-1778;6. Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, University of Chittagong, Chittagong, Bangladesh;7. Department of Forestry, The Papua New Guinea University of Technology, Lae, Papua New Guineahttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7556-042X |
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Abstract: | ABSTRACTClimate change affects plant phenology, spatial distribution, and even extinction of vulnerable species. Dipterocarpus turbinatus, locally known as garjan, is a valuable but vulnerable native tree species of Bangladesh whose spatial distribution under future climate change scenarios is not fully understood. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of present and future climatic scenarios on spatiotemporal distribution of D. turbinatus. We used maximum entropy species distribution modeling to perform the present and future habitat suitability of garjan under different climate scenarios. The representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 were considered for bioclimatic variables from the Global Climate Model – Hadley Global Environment Model 2 Atmosphere-Ocean. The predictive accuracy of the model was more than 97% in both the training and test data. The prediction results suggest that compared to present areas (7624 km2) under moderate habitat class it will be 2755 km2 and 1239 km2, respectively, in 2050 and 2070 under RCP2.6 scenario and decreases more rapidly under RCP8.5 scenario. Besides, the prediction also indicates that the habitat of the species will shift toward the high altitudinal south-eastern corner of the country whereas local extinction might occur in the north-eastern part during 2070. |
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Keywords: | Climate change habitat suitability conservation planning MaxEnt |
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