Predicting the extent of damage to conifer seedlings by the pine weevil (Hylobius abietis L.): a preliminary risk model by multiple logistic regression

Damage to conifer seedlings caused by the pine weevil, Hylobius abietis, was estimated within eighty-two forest sites in Northern Ireland. A wide range of environmental variables were compared with the variation in damage between study sites using multiple logistic regression. Although 45 explanatory variables were considered only four were identified as significant within the final model. The four variables were the size of the planted area, the age of the planting, whether the majority of seedlings were self-seeded or planted, and if the site had been previously planted or was a newly planted area. The identification of these four variables indicates that it is possible to build a model identifying areas at risk to weevil damage. Further, although three of the factors have been recognised as significant influences on weevil damage for some time, they still remain important variables within British Isles forestry, suggesting that there is further scope for more precise targeting of weevil control measures.