Uncertainty analysis of a spatial habitat suitability model and implications for ecological management of water bodies

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models have been generally accepted in ecological management as a means to predict effects of pressures and restoration measures on habitats and populations. HSI-models estimate habitat suitability from relevant habitat variables. Because outcomes of HSI-studies may have significant consequences, it is crucial to have insight into the uncertainties of the predictions. In this study a method for uncertainty analysis, using Monte Carlo simulations, was developed and applied for a HSI-model of pondweed (Potamogeton pectinatus) in Lake IJsselmeer, The Netherlands. Uncertainties in both habitat model functions and in input data were considered. The magnitude of the uncertainties in model functions were estimated by a panel of experts, and the uncertainty was highest at intermediate values of the suitability index (0.4–0.6). Uncertainty in the predicted habitat suitability is spatially correlated with variations in environmental habitat variables such as water quality and substrate. The estimated uncertainty may be considered acceptable for the purposes of water management, namely directing ecological rehabilitation and conservation activities. However, the uncertainties may be too high to meet the accuracy requirements of legislation such as the EU Bird and Habitat directive.