发挥进口贸易作用 促进经济协调发展——基于我国1978—2007年进口与经济增长关系的实证分析

改革开放以来，出口对我国经济增长的贡献几乎无人质疑，但进口是否促进了经济增长，却存在争论。笔者根据1978—2007年中国的进口和GDP数据，利用协整检验和因果关系检验等计量方法，对二者关系进行了检验，发现我国进口贸易与经济增长之间存在十分稳定且长期的动态均衡关系，进口增长对我国经济增长具有很强的促进作用。笔者据此联系当前国际国内形势提出了相应建议。

Promote Coordinated Economic Development by Bringing Imports into Fullplay Based on the Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Imports and Economic Growth in China from 1978 to 2007

It remains controversial whether import promotes China＇ s economic growth, although few people question the contribution made by export to it. Based on the data of imports and GDP of 1978--2007 in China, this paper analyzes the relationship between them by cointegration test and causality test and demonstrates that a stable and long-term dynamic balance exists between imports and economic growth, and the growth of imports promotes economic growth strongly in China. Taking into consideration the current domestic and international situations, the authors give some suggestions.