1986-2013年南京市土地利用/覆被景观格局时空变化及驱动力因素分析

以南京市为研究对象，采用南京市1986年、1996年、2002年、2013年的四期土地利用/覆被数据，运用景观生态学原理，借助ArcGIS软件和Fragstats软件，从土地利用类型结构、变化速度、转化关系和景观格局等方面分析南京市近30年土地利用/覆被和景观格局的时空变化状况及其驱动因素。结果表明:（1）南京市近30 a中土地利用/覆被发生了剧烈变化，耕地在整个研究区起到主导作用，其面积比例均在48%以上，但是其优势度逐渐降低，大量自然景观向人为景观转变是研究区土地利用变化最显著的特征；（2）整体景观类型变化速度都在增大，而草地和其他用地变化最为活跃，林地相对最稳定，土地利用结构处于快速调整阶段；（3）耕地的转出最大，主要转向为居民点及建设用地；（4）景观格局变化明显，破碎化程度越来越高，景观格局趋向复杂化，景观结构不稳定性增加；（5）人口增长、经济发展、区域政策和城市规划等共同推动了研究区景观格局的变化。该研究结果对于南京市的科学规划及可持续发展提供重要参考。

Land Use and Landscape Pattern Changes and the Driving Force Factors in Nanjing From 1986 to 2013

Taking Nanjing City as the research object, we used the land use/land cover data of 1986, 1996 and 2002 and 2013 as the data source. Based on the theory of landscape ecology, the support of ArcGIS and Fragstats software, land use/land cover and landscape pattern spatial and temporal variation and driving factors in the recent 30 years of Nanjing were analyzed in terms of the land use type structure, speed change, transformation relation and landscape pattern. The results show that:(1) the land use/cover has changed dramatically in Nanjing City in recent 30 years, cultivated land plays the leading role in the whole study area, the area ratio was above 48%, but its advantage gradually reduces, a large number of natural landscape converted to man-made landscape features is the most significant change in the research area; (2) the change speed of overall landscape types increased, while grassland and other land use changes were the most active and forest land remained the most stable, the land use structure was at the rapid adjustment stage; (3) the transformation of cultivated land mainly to residential and construction land was significant; (4) landscape pattern changed significantly, the degree of fragmentation was more and more high, landscape pattern tended to be complicated, and landscape structure instability increased; (5) population growth, economic development, regional policy and city planning promoted the change of landscape pattern together. These results of the study can provide an important reference for the scientific planning and sustainable development of Nanjing City.