基于AHP/BCG的农业气象服务效益评估方法研究

为了科学、准确地对农业气象服务效益进行评估和分析，结合威武市当地农业气象服务的特点，利用AHP（层次分析法）与BCG（波士顿矩阵）相结合的方法，将复杂的效益评估系统数学化、层次化、系统化，构建适合当地特色的新型农业气象服务效益评估模型，结合2015年武威市农业气象服务满意度调查问卷进行效益评估。结果表明，“气象部门对当地农业气象需求的了解程度与带来的社会和经济效益”、“预报要素准确率”、“气象服务产品特性”、“农业气象产品内容丰富性”等4类指标属于核心类项目，成为农气象服务中产生良好社会和经济效益的主要指标项目，“用户未来打算”属于发展型项目，具有良好的发展潜力。此次评估结果，能够使气象部门合理确定服务产品重点、改进服务内容，积极拓宽服务信息发布渠道，有效分配农业气象服务资源，对提高农业气象防灾减灾水平有着重要意义。

Evaluation Method of Agricultural Meteorological Service Benefit Based on AHP/BCG

In order to assess and analyze agricultural meteorological service benefit scientifically and accurately, combined with the characteristics of the local agricultural meteorological services, the author used the AHP (AHP) and BCG (Boston matrix) method to construct a new agricultural meteorological services benefit assessment model for adapting local characteristics and benefit assessment. And it could make the complex system mathematical, hierarchical and systematic, used the questionnaire of agricultural meteorological service satisfaction in Wuwei City in 2015. Results showed that: “the meteorological department’s understanding of the local agricultural meteorological needs and the social and economic benefits it brings”, “accuracy of prediction elements”, “meteorological service product characteristic”, “richness of agricultural meteorological products” 4 categories of indicators were the core of the project, and become the main indicator of good social and economic benefits in the agricultural meteorological service; “user future plans” belonged to development projects and it had a good development potential. So that the meteorological department could reasonably determine the service product focus, improve services, and actively expand the service information distribution channels and effective distribution of agricultural meteorological service resources, to improve the agricultural meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation level had important significance.